And that makes the kind of island-hopping campaign used by the US to take back the Pacific from Japan in World War II no longer feasible. The People's Liberation Army is capable of "substantially subduing" the US Navy in the waters around China, a Communist Party-owned newspaper boasts. The decision to go to war would not require a public discussion. But the Chinese are prepared to wage a much broader type of warfare that would reach deep into American society. Professor Clinton Fernandes is a former intelligence officer with the Australian Army Intelligence Corps and now Professor of International and Political Studies at the University of New South Wales. "It would suffer high attrition and its military modernisation and even its one-party Communist rule would be threatened. Don't Do It: An All-Out War With China Could End Humanity It is a bad idea to get into a shooting war with a fellow nuclear power. We acknowledge Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the First Australians and Traditional Custodians of the lands where we live, learn, and work. It is for that reason that some commentators, including me, do not think that China is likely to initiate an offensive war in the near future, until it is sure that it has enough mass to win quickly. "That is why I think it would be a mistake for America, or Australia, to go to war with China over Taiwan.". The most probable spark is a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Credit:AP. If the US went to war with China, who would win? By the time the Peoples Liberation Army launches its third volley of missiles at the island Beijing considers a breakaway province, the US could be just learning of the attack. "Conventional submarines offer some additional intelligence gathering capability, and the other force elements provide a small additional capacity to the US. America would win because the Australians have been weakened for years by the Emus. Wed like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. "A big unknown is whether Japan would grant expanded rights to the US to use bases located on its territory, without itself joining the combat directly unless its territory is attacked. And Australia could be fighting for its survival. Let's take a look at who would . An accident could trigger a cycle of escalation. If we lost a single frigate, that's around 170 lives in an afternoon. Fishing boats could push into ancestral territory, backed up by armed coast guard vessels. The Australian army is extremely careful to preserve the force-in-being by keeping casualties to a minimum. The attrition model appears to be deeply ingrained in the US approach to land warfare. The impact on Americans would be profound. Professor Clinton Fernandes, a former intelligence officer in the Australian military. Our economy would be paralysed as all trade with China and other major East Asian partners would stop dead and may not resume for a long time. Beijings tactic of area denial already appears to have been effective. "The Kadena air base is 450 nautical miles away from Taiwan and threatened by Chinese surface-to-surface missiles. He says given the rate at which Chinese forces are modernising and building capability and capacity "a Chinese victory over the US is the more likely outcome beyond 2035". Should US tensions with China flare into a war there is no question that these days Washington would put enormous pressure on Albanese, or any future leader, to join them in that conflict. And doesnt have the necessary reach. Who would win in a hypothetical battle between China and Japan? A month earlier, Xi Jinping had told the Peoples Liberation Army: We should persist in using combat to guide our work; step up preparations for war.. And each one would require a heavy investment of equipment and lives to neutralise if they could be reached in the first place. The divergence of the two Taiwan scenarios, a Chinese military attack or an invasion, says a lot about the relative military power of the US and China, itself a barometer of the strength of the two superpowers. China has demonstrated its capabilities already, including in Taiwan, where it has waged disinformation campaigns, and in serious hacking incidents in the United States. Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) analyst Dr Malcolm Davis disagrees. But will it be safer for women? He believesa blockade of Taiwan by China is more likely than a cross-strait invasion. China is aware of this gap. In this scenario, the US and its allies could respond by conducting airlifts to Taiwan. Taiwan cannot be resupplied by land. What determines victory, loss or stalemate between the US and China is likely to be determined by the murky calculus of how much risk and how much pain and loss both sides could endure. "Australia has a fundamental strategic pathology to support the interests of the US at the expense of our own. This is how we got here and what needs to change, 'Please confirm what Muslim refers to': Why Ali's birthday payment for his nephew was flagged by his bank, Kade was a fit 31-year-old when he died from a heart attack, Sherpa are world famous for their work, which is synonymous with their name. Looking into the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Europe, and in the wider context NATO, is being drawn towards having to deal with an unacceptable risk of war. And they cannot be rearmed at sea. Meia Nouwens from the International Institute for Strategic Studies said Beijing was intent on achieving primacy in the waters that surround China. In July 2020, BeiDou, Chinas version of GPS became fully operational, allowing it to track ships, planes, cars and smartphones from space without relying on the US technology that has dominated global positioning for decades. The most immediate fight, however, appears to be centred on Taiwan. There are less quantifiable aspects as well. of Strategic Forum in Canberra, Australia. What War with China Would Look Like, Part 2, will be published on Tuesdayand feature interviews with Allan Behm,former head of the International Policy and Strategy Divisions of the Defence Department, and Professor Clinton Fernandes, a former intelligence officer in the Australian military. "Australia has been there before. "Major combat against the United States means two nuclear-armed states fighting each other. 3-min read. It may be possible for the US to operate from bases in northern Australia, though whether overflight rights would be granted by Indonesia is unlikely. Ukrainian, Romanian, and US Army Special . And Taiwan sitting neatly between the two offers that opportunity. Were working to restore it. This is what a statesman should do as a risk averse response. We once had a praiseworthy reputation for the quality of our leadership and our officials. So to contribute to this discussion, Ive sought analysis from four of Australias most experienced military strategists and asked them exactly what Australias involvement in a war with China could look like. It has additional radars and air defence weapons on outposts in the South China Sea, which extend its IADS zone out even further, although these latter systems can be destroyed by the US. The US Air Force boasts nearly 2300 warplanes in service, with another 1422 aircraft in use for the US Navy and Marines, Janes calculates. The almost daily probes of Taiwans air defences would suddenly turn serious. Taiwans Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said on June 3 that Taipei did not anticipate a conflict was going to break out any time soon, but we are trying to get ourselves ready. "Relatively, we are a small country today and becoming even smaller in comparison to the company we keep. This is a statesman-like response to the challenges we are addressing today wherein the risk of war has grown since 2017, in my opinion. All four analysts have held the highest security clearances that its possible to have. But leaders in Washington also need to avoid stumbling carelessly into a war with China because it would be unlike anything ever faced by Americans. Mr. Xi has championed . He says Australia has a "fundamental strategic pathology:to support the interests of the US at the expense of our own". The US Arleigh Burke-class destroyers hold 96. In 2004 U.S. manufacturing output was more than twice Chinas; in 2021, Chinas output was double that of the United States. What would war with China look like for Australia? Dr Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst with ASPI's Defence, Strategy and National Security Program, told Daily Mail Australia it is increasingly likely President Xi Jinping will order Chinese forces. The bulk of these goods is transported aboard ships along sea lanes increasingly controlled by Chinese commercial interests that are ultimately answerable to Chinas party-state. Rockets figure heavily in Beijings arsenal. China-US superpower showdown: military strength Credit:Matthew Absalom-Wong. "As a continental power, China has a distinct preference for land warfare. It could take months to restore trade, and emergency rationing of some items would be needed. Those are easy targets. The US could no longer win a war against China China's navy has just completed a mission that has left US officials terrified - and it has serious implications for Australia's security. "When I was born in 1945 the world population stood at about 2.7 billion people. One option to attack the man-made islands would be to send in teams of US Marine Raider commandos to destroy weapons systems. "When the US closed down Bagram airbase in Afghanistan the Afghan Army collapsed. Even with robotic flying tanker support, these enormous ships must operate dangerously close to an enemy before their F-18 Super Hornets and F-35B&C Lightnings are of any use. With that in mind, I sought the views of four of Australia's most experienced military strategists, with 100 years of high-level military and strategic experience between them,to discuss what joining the US in a war with China could mean for Australians. "The fundamental assumption that we could win a war against China is wrong-headed and hawkish; it is also very risky. "The consequences for us would be very serious in terms of the Australian economy, the impact on the Australian people and the ravages to our way of life throughout the land, he says. "Practically this limits the sinews of war available to us: they would be insufficient. Possibly completely different. Here are some tips. A successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan would punch a hole in the U.S. and allied chain of defenses in the region, seriously undermining Americas strategic position in the Western Pacific, and would probably cut off U.S. access to world-leading semiconductors and other critical components manufactured in Taiwan. We seem incapable of arresting trends towards existential climate change threats. "But the prospect of war with China raises very different possibilities including for example, the significant likelihood that aircraft, ships and submarines we committed would be destroyed, with the potential for very high casualties among the crews. This week, China suspended the China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue a diplomatic mechanism for trade talksand accused Australia of "disrupt [ing] the normal exchanges and cooperation . But is Taiwans fate any of our business, as Beijing insists it isnt? It has just about every contingency covered. Western submarines will play a role in restraining Chinas surface fleet. "This would be a far cheaper and less risky way to achieve its objectives. The context for decision making would be vitally important weighing the potential costs to the country, domestically and internationally, against the value of that cost for maintaining the ANZUS relationship. What would war with China look like for Australia? And I cannot see America being willing to risk Chinese nuclear retaliation against the US homeland for Taiwan's sake. We dont own cargo ships to force vital supplies through any blockade. As president, Joe Biden has stated repeatedly that he would defend Taiwan. Should a war break out around the South China Sea, the US would be under pressure to quickly neutralise the roughly 10 man-made islands China has created (seen as unsinkable aircraft carriers) to use as military bases. Modern warships carry only a limited number of weapons. Imaginary targets could quickly be replaced by real ones. Our biggest customer is now also viewed as our biggest threat andChina's muscle-flexing around Taiwan last week only strengthened the view that a war involving Taiwan is a genuine possibility. And, in some areas, China may even be ahead. This service may include material from Agence France-Presse (AFP), APTN, Reuters, AAP, CNN and the BBC World Service which is copyright and cannot be reproduced. The national broadcaster carried out the interviews with "four of Australia's most experienced military strategists" The idea sounds grand charging forth, flags flying, to save a bullied island friend. War over Taiwan would be disastrous, Australias chief of defence General Angus Campbell told a recent gathering. If Australians are hearing the 'beating drums' of war, as Minister Mike Pezzullo put it, is it because Scott Morrison's Coalition government thinks banging on about China will be a winning . Scenarios in which it would be right thing to do are few. Answer (1 of 34): I must assume Brian Greenhow is joking, but if he is not I must point out that wars aren't won by population numbers or imaginary 'allies', but by real Alliances, either historical or by treaty, and by technology, military hardware, political maneuvers, industry and money, lots . "If they think the blockade is failing, they may declare victory by pointing to the damage already inflicted or they might escalate to attacking US forces supporting Taiwan. It depends how it starts. "America would then have to decide whether to go to war to break the blockade.". Then, it was mainly Germany, and from the 1930s Japan. Over the past decade, China has increasingly viewed the United States as mired in political and social crises. Allan Behm, now head of the international and security program at The Australia Institute, says were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10 years the best potential outcome for the US is a stalemate. At least initially, the bulk of any such conflict would be at sea. Beijings response was prompt and predictable. Now it is China. Brooking Institutions Michael OHanlon writes that the location of Chinas new fleet of attack submarines could act as a deterrent to US military escalation. "The military centre of gravity is China's integrated air defence system (IADS) in the south. Despite this, U.S. military planners would prefer to fight a conventional war. US-China war over Taiwan would be biggest since WWII, Australian expert says. Its military planners already expect these to be overwhelmed by missiles in the opening hours of any conflict. China might compound this with electronic and probably some physical attacks on satellites or related infrastructure. Modern aircraft particularly the F-35 stealth fighters in Australias arsenal need tender loving care. Supply chains of some critical goods and services need to be reconfigured to shift production to the United States or allied nations, and the United States must pursue a longer-term strategic drive to restore its dominance in global manufacturing. Chinese strategists see these passages as crucial to their ability to deploy forces beyond the first island chain, analyst Ben Lowsen told The Diplomat. The Miyako Strait connects the East China Sea with the Pacific Ocean. Beijing has already put its assets in place. "China does have the mass to sustain a war of attrition over a long period as it did, and has continued to do, in Korea and in Vietnam for that matter.". A separatist democracy against a legitimate government? With China's rise and democracy's decline, what will the global order look like in 2050? "Because the stakes for both sides are so high, and both are so well armed, it would swiftly escalate into a full-scale regional maritime war," he says. Any such war, he says, would primarily be a maritime conflict and would be on a scale unprecedented since World War II. The geographic focus is decisive. An earlier government tinkered with the concept of a reduction in the ten years of warning but did almost nothing about demonstrating seriousness. Oriana Skylar Mastro of Stanford University has testified that China dedicates all its resources to planning and preparing for a contingency in east Asia, while the US has additional responsibilities in the Middle East, Europe and worldwide. The number of inhabitants is 1,444,390,177. Is Australia prepared to pay the price to defend its friend Taiwan from China? Such possibilities seem remote at present. Washington and Beijing are locked in an intense strategic battle. Surrounded: Disturbing report from Ukraine. "The defence of Taiwan is predicated on a Chinese invasion but if China's main effort is not an invasion but a blockade, then what? A new 'veloway' is welcome news for Melbourne's cyclists. In the previous column the analysesof Hugh White a former Deputy Secretary for Strategy and Intelligence in the Department of Defence and Admiral Chris Barrie who served as Australia's most senior military leader as Chief of the Defence Force from 1998 to 2002were explored. We should not assume it will attempt this.". Its a problem long recognised by defence analysts and planners. According to the late Sir James Plimsoll [in conversation with me], Mao Zedong said to Prime Minister Nehru when the two met in 1954 that, in a war with any adversary China could afford to dedicate 100 million dead. It is very plausible to say there is no guarantee of victory in the first phases, Lyle Goldstein, a research professor at the Naval War Colleges China Maritime Studies Institute, told Newsweek. All times AEDT (GMT +11). In 1947 with setting up of the United Nations, after the catastrophes of both world wars and the more limited wars in the intervening years, we tried to build a system of managing international relationships without the recourse to war. How Japan is fortifying a string of tiny islands to fence in China, Taiwan takes lessons from Ukraine as it speeds development of drones for military use, Visiting US Marine Corps chief warns 'everything in the cupboard' needed to prevent war with China, Man discovers two highly venomous species battling in his shed, Inside the family succession drama threatening to change the K-pop industry forever. "Unlike the Taliban, China has an air force. The Peoples Liberation Army is capable of substantially subduing the US Navy in the waters around China, a Communist Party-owned newspaper boasts. "He would rather support Taiwan and enlist countries around the world in sanctioning or condemning China. "They would probably inflict a lot of damage on Chinese targets, but they would suffer very serious losses in the process. It would be relatively easy for China to establish a credible air and sea exclusion zone around Taiwan, and thereby put immense pressure on the Taiwanese to accept Beijings terms. Inflation and unemployment would surge, especially in the period in which the economy is repurposed for the war effort, which might include some automobile manufacturers switching to building aircraft or food-processing companies converting to production of priority pharmaceuticals. It isn't Ukraine. Russia, China, Britain, U.S. and France say no one can win nuclear war. Do they think an all-volunteer defence force can do the job? Chinas grey zone strategy is designed to use fishing fleets to swarm disputed waters in the East and South China Sea, now supported by armed Chinese Coast Guard cutters leveraging their status as non-combatants to get in close and be able to overwhelm US Navy warship sensors and defence perimeters, former navy intelligence director James Fanell told US media. Guam is 1,300 nautical miles and Honolulu (Pearl Harbor) is over 4,200 nautical miles from Taiwan. "If they think the blockade is failing they may declare victory by pointing to the damage already inflicted, or they might escalate to attacking US forces that are supporting Taiwan. I did not see anything like the same discontent in Australia. There are still hundreds of diplomats and politicians around the world including in Canberra working openly and behind the scenes to ensuretensions between China and the US never escalate into war. "As Carl von Clausewitz noted [in his book On War], defence is the stronger form of war. I don't think so! And, if a shooting war does break out, the US and its allies are not guaranteed a win. In its consequences, it would be profoundly and devastatingly different. China would have to launch an amphibious invasion, deploying troops along its beaches as the first step in a march towards the capital Taipei. Rising tensions or unforeseen circumstances that couldlead to war, however, can sometimes overtake those working for peace. February 27, 2023 China's foreign minister Qin Gang will attend the G20 foreign ministers' meeting on March 2. And Beijings new navy has been in almost a constant string of live fire exercises for the past year. "And oh, by the way, it's just going to get harder as we get further into the . "It would also have to be true that if any of the commentators were taken seriously the impact of this reality of preparing for war with China would now be affecting us all. "China's leaders could discreetly offer negotiations to Taiwan's leaders during a blockade before the risky step of ordering an amphibious invasion," Professor Fernandes says. "The forces are relatively evenly matched, because USadvantages in technology are balanced by China's advantages in geography fighting close to home. Mastro notes that in war scenarios the US wants to maintain the status quo in the region while China wants to change it. Are bills set to rise? The Pentagons latest threat assessment found China has already achieved parity with or even exceeded the United States in several military modernisation areas, including ship building, land-based conventional ballistic and cruise missiles, and integrated air defence systems.. Destroy the offensive capability of the PLAN and People . Professor Hugh White, a former Deputy Secretary for Strategy and Intelligence in the Department of Defence, Admiral Chris Barrie, Australias most senior military leader asChief of the Defence Force from 1998 to 2002, Allan Behm, a former head of the International Policy and Strategy Divisions of the Defence Department. The aim would be to foster confusion, division and distrust and hinder decision making. 2. These engineers break their silenceafterdecade of criticism over2011 Queensland flood handling, Tens of thousands of pigs and buffalo pegged for mass culls in Kakadu, in bid to curb feral animals, With Russian forces closing, Svyat rolled the dice in the last days before Bakhmut fell, Anna called police to report an assault, but it backfired and she lost her home, Home ownership remains in fantasy territory for many. Six large amphibious vessels have been launched, three since 2015, and a third aircraft carrier, larger than its predecessors, will soon be completed. Find out more about our policy and your choices, including how to opt-out. Chinas nuclear weapons are estimated to number between 200 and 350, a mere 5 per cent of the United States arsenal, but potentially enough to deter broader conflict through the prospect of mutual destruction. Hugh White, who is also Emeritus Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University, is clear in his analysis: "I do not think there is any credible chance that America, with or without Australia's support, could win a war with China over Taiwan." "Nor can it rely on the US for resupply by sea once a conflict begins. "In the case of war with China the questions we need to ask ourselves are: "When I stepped down as the Chief of theDefence Force in July 2002 I had not seen any information leading to the conclusion that an invasion of Iraq was inevitable. "China's IADS makes a blockade the most likely scenario. A blockade may be preceded by firepower strikes. Part 2. This service may include material from Agence France-Presse (AFP), APTN, Reuters, AAP, CNN and the BBC World Service which is copyright and cannot be reproduced. However, without the strong protection of the Australian forces, the world will be in peril from an unrestrained Emu army. Would any divergence of perspectives be thrashed out before going to war? And all are watching with great interest as the drums of war beat in some quarters regarding a possible war with China. Of all the uncertainty and conflict in the world at moment, the repercussions of Australia joining the US in any war with China over the status of Taiwan or any other issue issurely one of the most important discussions we must have. I think the US now accepts it may lose a conflict at least at the conventional level with China.. "This looks like another reason for statesmanship in averting this possibility.". And, crucially, they would probably not be able to inflict enough damage to decisively defeat the Chinese. But will it be safer for women? While the US remains ahead in space for now, Davis says how long US dominance lasts is not clear. We cannot lose a single inch of the lands we inherited from our ancestors, the Chinese Defense Ministrys Information Bureau recently proclaimed, and we would not take a single cent of others possessions., RELATED: Drums of war: Ominous China warning. The United States cannot win a war against China over Taiwan, four Australian defense experts have said in a series of interviews conducted by the . "I do not know whether Defence planners in Canberra would have made such estimates. "But, in a large-scale war involving many hundreds of thousands of people in offensive and defensive operations, even before reaching the attendant prospect of reaching a nuclear war threshold, Australia is unlikely to make a substantial difference. China is a country located in Eastern Asia with an area of 9,596,961 km2 (land boundries: 22,457 km and costline 14,500 km). U.S. supplies of many products could soon run low, paralyzing a vast range of businesses. "So, how would China prosecute the war? Admiral Chris Barriemakes the point that its possible the impact on Australia of any war with China could be greater than any other participant because of Australias low population. Chinas airfields, naval ports and missile bases are all nearby. He uses it in his new book, The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict Between the US and Xi Jinping's. This means any idea of sustained operations within the Pacific-spanning reach of Chinas ballistic and cruise missiles is likely optimistic. And hes repeatedly expressed his willingness to go to war to remove it. ", Any US-China war would be primarily a maritime conflict, and it would be, as we have seen, on a scale unprecedented since the Second World War. He says given the rate at which Chinese forces are modernising and building both capability and capacity, "a Chinese victory over the US is the more likely outcome beyond 2035". americanmilitarynews.com - Radio Free Asia 18h. It runs between the Philippines and Taiwan. While these have been costly, they also provided invaluable combat experience. Reinforcing Taiwan would likely involve long and bloody battles at sea as underarmed escorts struggle to protect the few but highly vulnerable available transports. And what would such a fight look like? It was Kevin Rudd who coined the phrase a "decade of living dangerously". We acknowledge Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the First Australians and Traditional Custodians of the lands where we live, learn, and work. The military scenario alone is daunting: China would probably launch a lightning air, sea and cyber assault to seize control of key strategic targets on Taiwan within hours, before the United States and its allies could intervene. Maybe, that explained why President Bush and Prime Minister Howard, from the right of politics, and Mr Blair from the left of politics, shared the view about the need for the invasion.". But would Australia immediately take up the fight? Former defence minister, Christopher Pyne, told an audience in Adelaide that Taiwan was the most likely next flashpoint in the region.
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